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What Will Happen In 2009?

by Steve Smith

One of the top futurists, Dr Dixon was asked to take a look at the year to come, and answer five questions on what should be in store for us! 1. In the UK economy?

"These are exceptionally tough times. We are about half way through the current crisis - this has been going on already over 18 months. So we can expect a tough year ahead and things to start picking up in 2010. Companies that make redundancies early and have conserved cash should do well in the upturn: lean and fit and with finances available to buy companies or assets at knock-down prices. A lot of fuss has been made about the fall in the pound but this is really good news for companies that sells goods or services outside the UK, and will also mean that people will spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. Housing Market! should we sell up or stay put? Should renting be a good option right now? Will housing become realistically affordable again?

"Each individual's situation is totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The market is most likely to continue to drop sharply, but it should eventually level out. The more it falls, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it will be that we see a rebound and strong recovery, as many will decide to come back into the market or enter for the first time. A lot has been said about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is very unlikely. The mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become attractive and competitive again. Once we become convinced that we are in the early stages of a Strong property price recovery, the loan to value ratios become more relaxed, and the return of 90% mortgages. Home loans are the highest and most important financial transaction most will do in their lifetimes with the exception of pensions, so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.

"The cost of buying or selling is high with stamp duty, legal fees etc. Rents have not fallen as quickly as house prices in many areas so renting is more expensive than you may think. Housing is already more affordable than for years - there has been salary inflation of 3.5% or more in the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have fallen up to 15%. Put them both together and you have around 25% drop in costs - and this is before mortgage rates started falling, already by 30% in some cases. If you look at the whole picture it seems likely that in the next 6 months time we will see some wonderful bargains, with an actual cost of ownership per month of less than 50 percent of what it was just 18 months ago. But first time buyers will still need a bigger deposit than in past. Remember that: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is very important to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. The UK job market.. what industries are most likely to make high job cuts? What are employment chances like right now if you lose your job?

"Retail jobs will be very hard hit in January to June as the reality starts to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and some others trading towards the bottom of their markets will do very well. There are many sectors which is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that were officially known about in December 2008. In previous downturns it has been unusual for well motivated and talented individuals to remain out of work for more than a year." 4. The credit/borrowing markets! will we be able to wean ourselves off our addiction to cheap credit? Will we learn the lesson and start to save more?

"These things are just cycles. We are about to enter a new cheap credit boom, with the lowest borrowing costs in history. The result in the medium term is likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."

To manage your money over the next few months, whatever their age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money may want to apply for a cheap loan. By doing this, borrowers may find that they are able to merge various financial commitments into a single low-cost monthly repayment.

5. The world economy! what affect will the world economy has on us all? What about £ sterling and our travel/work abroad?

"The global economy will continue to lurch from event to event. All will be looking out for the price of the dollar. Despite the massive US crisis the dollar has retained or increased value against many currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in many other nations are brought back home to service debts and other urgent commitments. Eventually these massive return flows will slow down. When this happens the big question is who will still want to buy the dollar? Countries such as China have purchased over a trillion of US dollars and are saving them for now. But what if they start selling? They cannot sell too many as this will force a dollar crash and what is left of their assets will be worth much less. But they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"

Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.

Published January 22nd, 2009

Filed in Finance

 

 

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